The first Derby della Madonnina of 2019 may fall on St Patrick’s Day but it won’t be the luck of the Irish that decides the outcome of this one.
It will be the quality and performances of the players of AC Milan and Inter, as well as the decisions of coaches Gennaro Gattuso and Luciano Spalletti in their respective dugouts which determine who leaves the San Siro on Sunday night with bragging rights.
A single point separates the sides coming into the contest, with the Rossoneri just one place and one point ahead of their city rivals in third, as we take a look at five things that will decide the derby.
Inter can cope in Icardi’s absence…
It is almost two years to the day since a man not named Mauro Icardi scored a goal for Inter in this fixture.
In April 2017, Antonio Candreva and Icardi netted to put Inter 2-0 up in a game that they collapsed in and ultimately settled for a draw after shipping two late on.
But the Argentine followed his goal in that game up with a match-winning hat-trick in a 3-2 win next time out and after two derby blanks were drawn by the Nerazzurri, he bagged an injury time winner earlier this season.
However, the side will now have to look elsewhere in search of derby inspiration and despite the fact that others haven’t stepped up in this game of late, it isn’t quite the cause for concern that it may first seem.
Since Icardi walked away from his duties last month, Inter haven’t exactly struggled for goals and the good news is that they have come from a variety of sources.
In that time frame, forgotten man Andrea Ranocchia has chipped in with a goal and even defensive-minded Matias Vecino has as many goals as striker Lautaro Martinez.
Seven games have been played and they have scored 13 times, with goals coming from all over the field and they will need others to share the burden again in Sunday’s pressure-cooker to ease the pressure on Lautaro Martinez’s shoulders in attack.
But goals will be hard to come by against Milan
How impressive have Milan been defensively since the turn of the year? The grand defensive traditions which were a hallmark of the club for so long from Franco Baresi to Paolo Maldini to Alessandro Nesta in recent decades seemed a long way off when you watched them lately.
Just look at this blast from the past line-up they fielded against Juventus four years ago.
Just remember Milan fans… Things could be a lot worse pic.twitter.com/8yWzDqpR0u
— ForzaItalianFootball (@SerieAFFC) March 11, 2019
Spearheaded by Alessio Romagnoli, Milan fans can now look back at that back four and if not laugh yet, then at least shudder and breathe a collective sigh of relief.
The former Roma stopper has gone from strength to strength after being entrusted as the leader of the Diavolo defence following Leonardo Bonucci’s swift return to Juventus and has developed into the defender that everyone expected.
Ivan Perisic’s form has been very much hit and miss of late and if he isn’t up for it early, then Davide Calabria (he will return instead of Andrea Conti) could snuff him out, although Ricardo Rodriguez should receive a stiffer test from the lively Matteo Politano.
Milan have conceded just one goal in the last 390 minutes of action against the Nerazzurri and it is a record that will be due for extension if they perform as they have of late.
In eight games in 2019 in Serie A, Milan have shipped just three goals and never more than one per game.
Who fills the Nainggolan void?
Injury to the midfielder means that he will be unavailable to Spalletti for the derby and with Europa League commitments having come prior to the game, it will force the coach into some decisions.
Roberto Gagliardini impressed in the win over SPAL and got a goal to go with it, pushing him into contention to start against a combative Rossoneri midfield, whose quality will cause Inter problems.
As is often the case with all-action stars such as Nainggolan, you sometimes do not notice their influence until they aren’t there to provide it and that may be the case on Sunday when it becomes clear how key he could have been against the impressive Tiemoue Bakayoko and Franck Kessie.
Joao Mario did seem set to step into the role behind Lautaro and offer support to both the forward and the midfielders behind him but the news of his father’s tragic passing on Tuesday does now also put his participation into doubt.
If he is in no mental frame of mind to play, which would be understandable, it could result in Vecino and Marcelo Brozovic sitting deep, with Gagliardini potentially pushed a little further forward but it is far from ideal.
Step up Suso
As close observers are no doubt all too aware, he started life in Milan derbies particularly well. He became a derby hero in Genoa with his heroics and followed it up with a brace in 2016 in the Milanese equivalent.
He scored the following year in a 3-2 loss but in the most recent editions, specifically both games in 2018, he was very underwhelming, struggling badly in both those games and contributing nothing for an anaemic Rossoneri.
It is now time for him to get back to delivering in derbies once again and he may not get a better opportunity that this to get back to form, with La Gazzetta dello Sport claiming that Dalbert is being favoured over Kwadwo Asamoah at present to start on Sunday.
The Ghanaian has been a formidable opponent for him and the ex-Liverpool man would surely fancy his chances more against the Brazilian if he is indeed handed a starting berth at left-back.
In addition, it isn’t just in recent derby fixtures that he has underperformed but he has been almost anonymous in recent games too, with Krzysztof Piatek, Hakan Calhanoglu and Samu Castillejo all stepping up in attack to grab the spotlight as the winger struggles.
But the bright lights of a big derby fixture could be the perfect opportunity for him to put that in the rearview mirror and kickstart his season for the run-in.
Inter’s lethal late danger
When the clock hits 75 minutes on the small San Siro scoreboard, it could signal the start of Rossoneri fans squirming in their seats and Gattuso looking to his bench in a bid to thwart the impending danger.
This season in Serie A, Inter have scored a staggering 38 percent of their goals, 15 of their 40 strikes, in the final 15 minutes of games, showcasing both a high fitness level, danger on the bench which can be unleashed late and a strong mentality.
Even in their most recent game, against SPAL, they got one of those when Gagliardini netted with 13 minutes left to put the result beyond doubt and Milan must be wary of their rivals’ potency in this area.
They don’t need much reminding as after all, the winning goal in the October meeting between the sides came via Icardi in injury time and no team has more goals late in games than the Nerazzurri.
Milan are no stranger to a late goal themselves, although their six in that time frame appears paltry in comparison, while they have also conceded five times from the 75th minute on this season, more than any other top six side, excluding Roma.
Source: forzaitalianfootball.com