Augsburg v FC Koln Betting Tips: Lack of goals unlikely at Augsburg Arena

14:33, 08 sep 2017

The Bundesliga season may only be two weeks old, but it’s already looking as though FC Koln could struggle massively in their attempts to match last seasons’ 5th place finish. Peter Stöger’s men have made a poor start to the campaign, losing both of their openings matches. It’s still early days, but the loss of 25 goal striker Anthony Modeste, who left for pastures new in the summer, is already having negative effects, while the Rhineland side are also looking particularly shaky at the back.

Augsburg have also made a poor start to the season, at least this is what the table suggests. In actual fact, if we examine their results closely, Saturday’s hosts have’t fared too badly. A narrow loss against Hamburg on match-day one can be forgiven, while their 2-2 draw against Gladbach last time out certainly had its positives. Offensively, Augsburg have impressed in both of their first two matches and, against a side who’re seemingly struggling at the back, the hosts could easily enjoy themselves going forward in this one, just as they did last time out. The first bet that catches the eye in this fixture is ‘Augsburg to Score Over 1.5 Goals’. Given the manner in which they went forward against another defensively inept side in Gladbach last time out, a price of 6/4 could turn out to be very generous indeed.

As we saw in that last match, against teams who take chances at the back, like Koln, Augsburg are capable of taking advantage. What’s more, having bolstered their attacking options over the summer by adding Michael Gregoritsch, Sergio Cordova and Marcel Heller, the hosts have already given the impression that they’re likely to do well in the final third this season, especially at home. After two matches, Augsburg currently sit 3rd in terms of shots taken, while only five Bundesliga teams have managed more efforts on target so far. Manuel Baum’s side have made a pleasing start by trying to get on the front foot and such a style is not likely to change against a team who’ve been known to collapse defensively.

Although they did indeed enjoy a good campaign last season, Koln often fell down defensively and, based on their first two matches this season, such problems are still visible. The visitors have already conceded four goals – only one team has shipped more in the opening two matches – but it’s not so much the goals conceded that is the main problem. Teams can often concede goals without really giving much away, in which case there probably isn’t cause for concern; however, that’s not really the case for Koln. The main issue so far has been the frequency in which Stöger’s men are presenting their opposition with chances. In both of their two fixtures so far, the opposition could have, and certainly should have, scored further goals. Unsurprisingly, Koln have conceded more shots so far this season (34) than the majority of the teams in this league with just Freiburg and Gladbach allowing their opposition more.

The one saving grace for the visitors, as was the case last campaign, is that they’re by no means a bad side at the other end of the pitch, though, whether or not they can repeat last season’s threat levels will depend largely on how well they cope without the services of the aforementioned Modeste. Having said that, they could be aided by the fact that Augsburg, for all their forward qualities, are also far from the strongest team defensively. Keeping this in mind, alongside the fact that this is likely to be an open, attacking encounter, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ is another bet which, at odds of 5/4, looks somewhat overpriced.

These two were no strangers to high-scoring matches last season and, given their respective starts to this campaign, it would be absolutely no surprise whatsoever if plenty of goals materialised at Augsburg Arena on Saturday afternoon.

More Bundesliga tips can be found here.

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