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Bury – Colchester. Mark O’Haire’s prediction (VIDEO)
For weeks and weeks I’ve remained a loyal and fervent supporter of Colchester, eager to find ways of supporting them. That might sound like madness but they’ve actually been pretty decent, especially since Kevin Keen took charge.
ColU gave Southend a serious test on Boxing Day then Gillingham too just two days later. Sheffield United were fortunate to escape the Community Stadium with maximum points and bar the return fixture at rivals Southend and a trip to Scunthorpe, the U’s have had more shots and shots-on-target than their opponents.
Only Peterborough, Coventry and Walsall have fired in more efforts on-target and their 52% shots-on-target ratio figure – their share of the total shots-on-target in Colchester games – ranks them 11th in League One. But Keen’s men are rock-bottom and eight points from survival.
So what’s going wrong? Well, the Essex raiders just seem incapable of keeping the goals out. Colchester have conceded 73 in their 31 league outings – that’s the worst return from the top four tiers at this stage of a season since 1997/98 – and a huge 50.34% of the shots-on-target they’re facing are resulting in goals (Blackpool’s is 20.77% by comparison).
The visitors have W0-D1-L9 in their last 10 away days and been beaten by at least a two-goal margin in eight of those nine losses. They’ve accumulated a horrifying -28 goal difference in their 15 League One road trips this term, shipping at least two goals in 12 of those encounters.
Colchester are winless in 17 league fixtures now, taking just three points (W0-D3-L14) from a possible 51. And going back to the start of last season, the guests have lost 21/38 (55%) of their away matches at this level.
So I just have to oppose ColU on Saturday with Bury available to back at 1.95. The Shakers were humiliated 6-0 at Coventry last weekend but bounced back with an impressive performance at home to Sheffield United in midweek.
The Gigg Lane were 2-1 winners on Tuesday and although that was only a fifth league triumph in 19 (W5-D3-L11), they now have the perfect opportunity to bank back-to-back victories.
David Flitcroft brought his experienced campaigners back into the fold in midweek and the confidence in the camp was flowing in the aftermath of that overdue win with players and coaches suggesting a play-off push isn’t yet out of the equation.
Bury have scored in all bar two of their home games this season, nothing twice or more in 6/14 (43%). I’ll count on the Shakers piling more misery on Colchester here.
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