Carlisle United v Exeter City Betting Tips: Goals expected at Brunton Park
These two actually faced each other in the last regular game of the League Two season with Carlisle coming out on top. However, the play-offs are a different animal entirely and this match will require a completely different mindset from both teams.
Carlisle come in to this match with good momentum after two wins in their last two and no defeats in their last five. They will also take confidence from the fact that they won the last meeting between these two.
Surprisingly for a team in the play-offs, the Cumbrians have not been particularly good in either box. This is especially true at the back with their record of 68 goals conceded by far the worst in the top seven and even worse than a fair number of teams who were battling against relegation. Additionally, they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last six matches. Their Goals For statistic of 69 does look relatively good when you look at the rest of the division, however, compared to the rest of the top seven, it is not good – the joint-worst in fact. Having said that, they are in good goal-scoring form at the moment having found the back of the net two or more times in each of their last three games.
Although Keith Curle’s men won their last match at Brunton Park, they have been pretty dire at home in recent times with just five points taken from a possible 21 in their last seven. In fact, they have won just two matches on home soil in 2017. Furthermore, the fact they have a goal difference of 0 is pretty poor for a side looking for promotion. However, there will be positivity going into this match as they beat Exeter at home last time out whilst they have also lost just two home matches against teams in the top seven this season, winning three of them.
Exeter were guaranteed a spot in the play-offs before their match against Carlisle and so probably took their eye off the ball a bit, bringing an end to their two-match winning streak. It will be interesting to see if this result has handed the initiative to Carlisle, giving them confidence whilst Exeter could find it difficult to turn the form tap back on. At the same time, as mentioned earlier, the play-offs are a very different.
Paul Tisdale’s side have certainly focused on the attacking side of the game this season and their record of 75 scored is the third-best in the division and the best of all the play-off teams whilst they have also found the back of the net eight times in their last three matches. However, this has cost them quite dearly at the back with no clean sheet in their last nine along with a poor Goals Against statistic of 56 in 46 matches – the second-worst in the top seven.
Although the Grecians lost that match against Carlisle in the last match, something that will give them huge confidence here is their away form which is amongst the best in the division with an incredible 42 points taken from 23 games – 13 more points than they have taken on home soil. Having said that, the aforementioned poor defence has been pretty poor on the road in recent times with no clean sheet in eight.
Carlisle do have the better head-to-head record this season, however, play-offs are always quite challenging to call and this affair is even more difficult to do so given the goal-scoring nature of these two sides. With this in mind, and the fact that both are the sort of side who will want to establish an advantage in this first leg. ‘Over 2.5 Goals’, at 10/11, is well worth a bet considering such a bet has landed in 57% of Carlisle’s home matches and in 61% of Exeter’s away matches.
Play-Off tips for Blackpool v Luton can be found here.
Thanks for your help!
We appreciate your alertness!
You've successfully followed this author. You'll get notifications of his new tips on your registered e-mail.
You've successfully followed this expert. You'll get notifications of his new tips on your registered e-mail.
This means that you will no longer receive notifications about new posts by this author to your e-mail address.
You will no longer be notified of this expert's new tips.