Germany are hitting their stride and looked impressive in the 3-0 dismantling of Slovakia, even if the opposition did provide next to no resistance. Likewise Italy looked good too against Spain. So here we have an interesting match-up.
There are two key factors here in my opinion. If Germany play Gomez up front it could make them more one-dimensional, as well as play into the Italians hands. It was OK against weaker defences, but i’m not sure it makes sense here. And a lot will depend on how Italy are physically. Most starters had an extra game’s rest against Spain, that won’t be the case here. I make Germany slight favorites (the bookies make them much bigger favorites). For that reason, I think it makes sense to go the other way at 4.00 which is a pretty big price given what we’ve seen. We know how well Italy can defend and the Germans might just struggle to break them down. At the same time we know how effective Italy have shown they can be on the counter and they could use this tactic to good effect once more here.
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