Horse Racing Tips: 16th November 2016

15:00 Chepstow – Kayf Charmer @ 11/2 

Having already won at Chepstow during this calendar year, Kayf Charmer is a runner who makes plenty of appeal in the 15:00.

The six-year-old has turned in some very credible efforts in recent times and should be more than capable of going well in a race where none of the others look like they’ll take too much beating.

Since moving to the Miss L Blackford stable just under a year ago, the mare has had only six races, but has performed with credit on each occasion. Two of those runs saw her fill the places, while another two saw her come home in front, including around here back in late March. That win was followed up by another, this time at Uttoxeter, while last time out (back in early May) she ran well to finish a close-up fourth over 19 furlongs at Warwick.

It is the race last time out, coupled with her previous Chepstow win, that catches the eye most. When finishing fourth at Warwick, she didn’t enjoy the clearest passage at a crucial point in the race and, without being hampered three out, it’s fancied she would have gone even closer. In terms of quality horses, that race was probably better than this contest, at least in terms of depth, and a repeat of such form would surely see her go close here.

Having previously run predominantly over right-handed tracks, her last three runs have been going left-handed and, considering these have easily been her best three performances to date, this is clearly something she thrives on.

With two wins and a place from her seven runners, trainer Blackford boasts a decent strike rate at Chepstow in recent times, while young jockey Connor Smith has ridden four winners from 18 runners for this trainer in the last 12 months – one of those wins coming on Kayf Charmer around this course.

As hurdle races of this nature go, this one probably won’t take much winning. Kayf Charmer could easily be capable of continuing on the upward curve and it would no surprise if she went in at the first time of asking this season. A price of 11/2 is well worth snapping up as she’s more than likely to be shorter in the market come the start of the race.

18:40 Kempton – Sovereign Debt @ 3/1

In terms of class performers, the listed race at Kempton tomorrow evening is the pick of the day and Sovereign Debt is the pick of the race.

In the early betting for this race, it’s surprising to see that the selection isn’t favourite. Instead it is Roger Varian’s lightly raced Ennaadd who’s been chalked up as the 9/4 market leader. However, even though this horse produced a number of encouraging performances on the all-weather earlier this year, it remains to be seen how good he is, while this is a reasonably tough assignment on reappearance. With this in mind, at the prices, it’s definitely worth sticking with the proven performer, a horse who, if running to somewhere near his best, would surely take all the beating.

Dandy Nicholls’ Sovereign Debt has a long list of high-level performances to his name and is a four-time listed winner. He’s regularly competed in hotter looking races than this one and there’s nothing much in here that will worry connections.

The seven-year-old should be fresh after his 76 day break over the summer and comes into this race with two recent wins under his belt. Just over two weeks ago, the gelding was seen powering clear in a listed race at Leopardstown and if he turns up here in the same mood (there’s no reason why he won’t) then it’s hard to see him not going close.

Although not a regular visitor to the all-weather, his record on the surface is pretty impressive. In seven all-weather runs, he boasts one win in listed company and has only failed to fill the top two places twice.

Given his profile, it’s hard to see how Sovereign Debt isn’t favourite, let’s face it he’d be a worthy one, and this looks a great opportunity for the seven-year-old son of Dark Angel to complete his hat-trick.