Horse Racing Tips: 17th November 2016

13:15 Wincanton – Demographic @ 7/2

Emma Lavelle’s Demographic looks to have been found a good opportunity here and a big run is expected from the horse who is due to go up 4lbs in future races.

The seven-year-old remains lightly raced and turned in a promising performance when reappearing at Huntingdon nine days ago. That race, one that was undoubtedly stronger than this contest, saw Demographic put in a really pleasing run, especially considering it was his first in over 250 days. Having tracked the leaders, he held his position well before finishing 2nd. He may have been easily beaten (four lengths) by the winner, but in a decent looking 15-runner event it was definitely a promising effort.

The slight step down in trip today looks in favour, while the fact that Daryl Jacob retains the ride also bodes well. Aside from the run last time out, the gelding’s best piece of form came at this track just over a year ago where, once again in a stronger race, he acquitted himself well, running on strongly to take a fairly close (beaten just over two lengths) 3rd. If we look at this run in relation to today’s race, he has to have a big chance and it’s a real surprise that he’s not both favourite and a lot shorter in the early market.

Emma Lavelle is a trainer who does well at this track – in 2015, she saddled four winners from 13 runners, while in 2016 she’s currently on two winners from seven runners.

All in all, this really isn’t the best race and if Demographic is going to win at this level then he probably won’t get too many better chances.

13:45 Wincanton – Bon Enfant @ 13/2

In the following race at Wincanton, it is the Warren Greatex trained Bon Enfant who makes plenty of appeal. The five-year-old has been lightly campaigned and could be on the up this season.

Since making his hurdling debut around this time last year, the gelding has made just five starts over timber and is twice a winner. On soft ground, under today’s pilot Harry Bannister, he won nicely at both Fontwell and Wetherby in November and December last year, before stepping up to finish a credible 2nd in a Class 3 event at Sandown in February. It’s also worth noting that he won a National Hunt Flat race over C&D on debut back in April last year.

Last time he was seen on the track was back in April, where a 7th place finish in a 13-runner event at Sandown wasn’t exactly the worst effort. In terms of quality, that race was much stronger than this contest and thus a similar showing wouldn’t put him far away here.

The interesting thing about this horse, or rather the eye-catching thing, is that he seems to have progressed steadily, including after a number of breaks. With this in mind, having been rested for 208 days, there could definitely be more to come, although even a repeat of some of his best form should see him go well in this field. Going fresh is something that he seems to favour – he won first time out over C&D as well as winning after a 192 day break this time last year. On top of this, his half a length second at Sandown in February came after a 63 day lay-off – his best effort at the time.

With a 28.7% strike rate, Greatrex has done fairly well at Wincanton in recent times, while young jockey Harry Bannister has already won twice aboard this horse. There seems to be plenty in favour here and Bon Enfant is definitely worth supporting.

16:00 Wincanton – Miracle Cure @ 7/2

Venetia Williams’ Miracle Cure is a really interesting runner here and looks as though he may be on the right sort of mark to pick up his first win over hurdles.

What’s particularly interesting, aside from the fact that this doesn’t look an overly tough assignment, is the the fact that Miracle Cure’s two best runs to date have both come at Wincanton. He finished 3rd in a 12-runner event off a mark of 107 in December 2014, before finishing 4th, again off a rating of 107, in early January 2015. Both of those runs came in events that, on paper, look stronger than today’s race.

OK, the gelding has to overcome a lengthy (563 days) absence, but, if he is up for it on reappearance, his shrewd handler might just have found the right opening.

On the face of it, this doesn’t look a strong race, in fact, the selection has done pretty much all of his running over timber in much better contests and, off what really could be a lenient mark of 103, he’s worth taking a chance on.

18:25 Chelmsford City – Volunteer Point @ 7/1 (each-way) & Baddilini @ 16/1 (each-way)

Two horses catch the eye in the Class 2 event at Chelmsford on Thursday, both of which look to have excellent each-way prospects.

Volunteer Point for Mick Channon comes into this race with an excellent record in similar events and seems to have worked her way to down to a very attractive looking handicap rating of 94. If we consider that she was last seen winning off a rating of 102, it’s not hard to be upbeat about her chances.

What’s also impressive about this filly is her all-weather record in similar races. She’s previously raced in Class 2 all-weather events over 7 furlongs twice and has won both times. In January she got in front late on over C&D from a mark of 98, before winning next time out at Lingfield over 7 furlongs from a mark of 102. If we look at her overall record on the all-weather, it’s just as impressive. From nine runs, she’s won five times and has finished second on two other occasions.

Last time out, Volunteer Point ran a decent race to finish fifth in a listed event over a mile at Lingfield. The step down to 7 furlongs is definitely a plus and, considering her previous exploits, it’s hard to see why she’s not a good bit shorter for this race.

Moving on to Baddilini, the Alan Bailey trained gelding is another who could potentially be well in off a mark 85 and, carrying the least weight, he’s fancied to run a decent race.

Although the six-year-old doesn’t boast a high-profile record like the first selection in this race, he does have some decent form to his name which suggests he could be overlooked in the betting here. He’s run in Class 2 all-weather events over 7 furlongs on three occasions and has won once (off a mark of 93), as well as getting fairly close in both of the other two attempts (beaten a length over C&D this time last year and then just over two lengths in January).

Depending on what goes on up-front, we’re talking about the sort of horse who can arrive late and pick up the pieces. Off a handicap rating that is 8lbs below his last winning mark, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Baddilini running a good race from the back and, at a big price, he’s worth an each-way punt.

20:00 Chelmsford City – Yasir @ 7/1 (each-way)

Conor Dore’s C&D winner Yasir, is an interesting runner in this event and, at odds of 7/1, certainly merits some each-way support.

The eight year-old has been tried over a variety of trips on a variety of surfaces during his career and has delivered various success. With six wins from 17 starts, though, this calendar year has been a particularly fruitful one for connections, and he might just have been found another good opening here.

Having only run over C&D once before, the gelding currently boasts a 100% record. Back in August, he claimed victory in a five-runner event and, although this wasn’t the strongest race of it’s type, the form looks fairly solid in relation to this assignment. In fact, a repeat of that form, would surely see him in the thick of the action here.

It’s interesting that connections have avoided this trip in the four runs since his C&D victory – they might just have been biding their time in order to get back down to a more workable mark. Now off his last winning mark of 64, Yasir is back at a trip where he’s gone well and, in a race that doesn’t look ultra-competitive, he’s definitely worth an each-way bet at 7’s.

See more tips here.