Horse Racing Tips, Thursday 19th May

18:25 Sandown: October Storm @ 9/1 – 1 point each-way

Sandown is the scene for both of today’s bets and we start with the second race on the card, where it is the Mick Channon runner who makes most appeal.

In his first three runs October Storm has definitely shown some promise. Having had only one start as a two year old – a 6^th place finish in a reasonably strong 12 runner Newmarket maiden – this colt has made a pleasing start to life as a three year old.

A step up in trip, from 8f to 12f, paid dividends on seasonal reappearance at Kempton, as the horse stayed on strongly in the latter stages to take the spoils by two and a half lengths. Admittedly this was a low grade encounter, but today’s contest doesn’t look strong one either. Well, at least on paper.

Having won nicely at Kempton October Storm made his handicap debut at Windsor, on somewhat heavy ground, just over a month ago. This time it was a slight drop back in distance, which given his third place finish – staying on late in the day – looked to be a poor choice. The ground probably didn’t help, but nor did the distance. The manner in which he finished the race, coupled with how strongly he stayed on over 12f the time before, suggests that a further step up in trip is required. And with today’s contest taking place over 14f connections clearly share this notion.

As mentioned previously, Mick Channon is a trainer with a respectable record at Sandown and the booking of De Sousa is again a plus. You could argue that this isn’t all that significant as De Sousa regularly rides for this stable – 135 rides in the last 12 months – but the fact that he shows both a profit of £37.81 to £1 stakes and almost a 21.48% strike rate when riding for Channon suggests that he’s generally on the right ones.

In terms of opposition Harbour Law could be a big threat, but, having won last time out, he’s been slapped with an opening mark of 85, which is likely to make life much harder for him here. In truth, unless he proves to be far too good for this level giving away weight all round looks tricky.

Essentially, at 10/1, the Channon runner looks too big in the betting. There are of course a few others in here who certainly can’t be discounted, but, given the forecast better ground and the step up in trip, October Storm looks a solid each-way bet.

20:35 Sandown: Forest Lakes @ 9/1 – 1 point each-way

Now if the betting is anything to go by here then this race is all about one horse, and it’s not Forest Lakes.

Danilova is both the horse in question and the red-hot favourite. And this looks as though it can go two ways: either her opening mark of 74 is extremely lenient, or her elite entries are far from warranted. Personally, I’m thinking the latter, or rather hoping!

Considering she won first time up and given her numerous group entries, it is easy to see why Danilova is fancied, although you can’t help but think that this is the classic hype horse. Of course the hype in this case could easily be justified, but just as easily the market could be jumping the gun somewhat. If we look at the facts, ignoring the hype for a minute, going on her debut run, does this warrant the odds-on quote here? No. Compare this with the form of others in the race who look to have claims and it really doesn’t look overly special.

Forest Lakes heads those who will be looking to upset the odds, and, at 9/1, this filly is easy to like as an each-way prospect.

Having her first run for George Scott today – a small trainer who’s found himself among the winners of late – the filly hit the frame on all three starts last season, showing slight promise, but promise nonetheless, each time. Running over 7f and then 8f twice Forest Lakes has given the impression that a step up in trip would suit, so today’s extra furlong looks a plus. Last time out she turned in her best effort so far when finishing third in a modest maiden at Kempton, staying on well in the final 50 yards.

That race last time out has produced two subsequent winners, albeit in weak events, both of which finished behind the selection. Jamie Spencer takes the ride today which has to be viewed in a positive light, and you’d have to think that this is evidence that this small yard are confident of a good showing today.

All in all, we’re talking about a horse who performed with plenty of credit in her handful of appearances last season, and off what looks a potentially lenient opening mark, it would be no surprise if she comes on for her new yard and runs a good race.