Montenegro v Denmark Betting Tips: Home side undervalued

17:49, 04 oct 2017

With these two sides sitting on the same number of points (16) in Group E, they will both feel they have a decent chance of reaching the playoff round of the World Cup qualifiers. One of them could still finish top of the group and qualify automatically for Russia 2018, but that honour is likely to go to Poland who are three points clear at the summit.

Montenegro have been on a fantastic run of late and have now taken maximum points from each of their last three qualifiers. However, they need a result against Denmark on Thursday as they travel to table toppers Poland in their final match on the following Sunday.

Ljubisa Tumbakovic’s men have been excellent at both ends of the pitch in those aforementioned three matches with eight goals scored and just the one conceded. In fact, they have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their World Cup qualifying matches so far.

After possessing a rather unwanted home record of just one win in five matches in all competitions (including friendlies), Hrabi sokoli have turned their home fortunes around in their last two outings with two wins from two. Furthermore, they have only lost four of their 24 competitive home matches as an independent country – not bad for a country with a population of less than 700,000 of which only 45% are ethnically Montenegrin.

Although Denmark are below Montenegro in the table due to an inferior head-to-head record, they arguably have a better chance of making the playoffs as they face an easier final game – at home to Romania rather than away to Poland. They are in good form with no defeats in any match since October 2016 and three back-to-back wins going into this match.

Much like Montenegro, Age Hareide’s side have been tremendous in both attack and defence in their last few outings with 11 goals scored and just two conceded in their last three. This scoring rate of 11 is particularly impressive when you compare it to their record of just two goals scored in the three matches prior to this latest winning run.

After suffering abysmally on their travels from late 2014 to late 2016 – winning none and losing seven of their 10 away games – De Rød-Hvide have finally started to pick up results on the road and have now taken maximum points in each of their last two matches outside of Denmark. However, it must be noted that these victories only came against minnows Kazakhstan and Armenia. Thursday night in Montenegro will be a much sterner test for Hareide’s men.

These two sides have identical points, goals scored and goals conceded records which means Montenegro are only ahead of Denmark due to their superior head-to-head record. With a daunting trip to group leaders Poland in their final game, this is a must-win for Montenegro whereas Denmark know a draw could be enough. For me it is surprising that Denmark are the favourites here given their poor away record and Montenegro’s recent good form – particularly at home. With this in mind, I think Montenegro to Win – Draw No Bet is good value at 39/25.

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