Pakistan vs Australia 1st Test: Prediction and Betting Tips

Pakistan host Australia for a three-Test series. The second and third matches are scheduled for Karachi and Lahore.

Andrew McDonald has taken over as interim Australia coach for this tour after Justin Langer stepped aside. The trip also includes a limited overs leg.

Key Facts

• The team batting first in Rawalpindi has won only two of 11 Tests played there (D3, L6)
• Pakistan has won four of their last five home Tests (W4, D1)
• The hosts have won seven of their last eight Tests home and away since January 2021 (W7, L1)

Back in Pakistan

Since Pakistan were able to hosts Tests inside their own boundaries again in December 2019, they have played five matches. These games in Rawalpindi and Karachi against Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and South Africa saw the hosts winning four matches and drawing one.

Pakistan has won seven of their last eight Tests played since January 2021, but there have been some easier pickings among those games. Zimbabwe and Bangladesh provided little resistance, but a home win against South Africa shows they have bite. The only defeat came away in West Indies.

Australia full of confidence. Is it misplaced?

A trip to Pakistan for the first time since 1998 is a step into the unknown. But Australia makes the trip fresh from a 4-0 Ashes series win Down Under. The conditions are totally different, and this is a huge challenge for the Pat Cummins-led tourists.

No Aussie player has experience of playing in Pakistan. And Marnus Labuschagne, Marcus Harris, Cameron Green, Alex Carey and Scott Boland have never played a Test in Asia.

The last time Australia toured Asia was in the UAE in October 2018. They lost a Test series 1-0 to Pakistan. They have not won in their last five Tests against Pakistan away (D1, L4). And in their last six away series around the world, Australia have drawn two and lost four.

Aussies feeling safe

It’s great to see international cricket back in Pakistan. It all stemmed from the attack on the Sri Lankan national team in Lahore in March 2009. Tragically, six security officials and two civilians were killed. Pakistan subsequently played ‘home’ matches in the UAE as a temporary home.

Australia batsman Steve Smith has said the players feel “incredibly safe” on their first tour back there.

.@TheRealPCB and @CricketAus introduce Benaud-Qadir Trophy for #PakvAus Test series
Cummins: To be able to compete for the Benaud-Qadir Trophy for the 1st time is a huge honour
Babar: I am honoured that I will be leading the Pakistan team in the Benaud-Qadir Trophy#BoysReadyHain pic.twitter.com/B7ki5hCNJs

— Pakistan Cricket (@TheRealPCB) March 2, 2022

Spin may not be king in Rawalpindi

It’s easy to assume that the Pakistan wickets will be spin friendly. That won’t necessarily be the case.

The last time Pakistan played a Test in Rawalpindi, they beat South Africa by 95 runs in February 2021. Anrich Nortje took 5/56 and Hassan Ali match figures of 10/114.

Four wickets fell to spin in the first innings as opposed to nine in the second innings. That has also been replicated in domestic cricket at the ground. And remember, when you back a bowler to take the most wickets, you’re backing the first innings markets.

Only 19 wickets have fallen to spin bowling in Rawalpindi’s three Tests since 2019. They fell as a cumulative average of 50.11, whereas pace bowlers’ wickets came at 26.42.

Shaheen a real threat

Shaheen Shah Afridi was Pakistan’s top wicket-taker in Tests played in 2021. He took five wickets per match on average and grabbed five wickets in the Test at Rawalpindi. The 21-year-old left-arm fast bowler is ever-improving and, on his day, capable of blowing a team’s batting apart. Captain Babar Azam has a spearhead in Shaheen that can lead an accomplished bowling attack.9

For Australia, spinner Nathan Lyon averages 47.18 against Pakistan. He did however take 12 wickets in two UAE Tests in 2018, could see him as a threat. He’s got 415 Test scalps behind him, so he can never be dismissed.

Given Rawalpindi’s tendency to see pace bowlers gain most success, captain Pat Cummins is the bowler to back. It may be that Australia play two or three spinners and we know Cummins will play. He’s the pick of the touring pacemen at 3.75.

Marnus Labuschagne – one to watch

Melbourne Cricket Ground was adapted to resemble Pakistan conditions ahead of the trip. The tourists have practised to be ready and Marnus Labuschagne took to Instagram to show his makeshift indoor spin strip in his conservatory. Marnus had taped metal aluminium strips to a homemade mat to replicate the ball skidding and turning inconsistently.

And, Labuschagne is certainly of interest in the batting markets. His technique is solid, his temperament strong and he lives for scoring runs. He’s the prized wicket for Pakistan, despite his inexperience in Asia.

Pakistan players straight out of PSL

The successful recent edition of the Pakistan Super League has only just been completed. Champions Lahore Qalandars boasted Shaheen Shah Afridi and Haris Rauf. These players now need to get back into the red ball groove.

Faheem Ashraf and Hasan Ali are missing with injury. Rauf could make his Test debut. Mohammad Nawaz has been ruled out with a foot injury.

Pakistan have posted the lowest opening partnership in all five of their home Tests since international cricket returned to Pakistan. Shan Masood has been recalled as an opener to try and change that.

Who wins?

The average first innings score in Pakistan’s five home Tests since 2019 is just 245. This rises slightly to 271 at Rawalpindi. But they tend to be surfaces that lead to positive results, so don’t back the draw.

Five of the 11 Tests in Rawalpindi saw the team batting second winning the match after posting totals of 430-plus.

Despite Australia’s recent success, the Pakistan side are the team to back. They’ve done it before in home Tests. If Australia do win, it will be their biggest Test success for some time. Alien conditions and history are not in their favour.

With both sides priced equally, and a result likely, it has to be Pakistan to win at 2.50.

Pakistan squad: Babar Azam (captain), Mohammad Rizwan (vice-captain), Abdullah Shafique, Azhar Ali, Fawad Alam, Haris Rauf, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imam-ul-Haq, Mohammad Wasim Jnr, Nauman Ali, Sajid Khan, Saud Shakeel, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Shan Masood, and Zahid Mahmood.

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (captain), Steve Smith (vice-captain), Ashton Agar, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Mitchell Starc, Mark Steketee, Mitchell Swepson, David Warner.