Here’s the final. It’s time to make bets on it. I not only made a bet, but also calculated the profit from previous tips. I’m writing this at 5 am in the morning, so there could be mistakes.
According to my estimates, there have been 14 bets, 8 of which won. $140 was spent, and the profit has been $30.8, or 22%. What shall we do now? I see three ways. The first is to stop. But it sounds unsportsmanlike. The second choice is to make a small bet to secure profit and win a little. The third way is to make a bet that could significantly add profit to our net, but could also lead to an overall loss.
Ronnie O’Sullivan played his worst game in the tournament, but won. Barry Hawkins played much better than in the first two games. But I still believe that Ronnie will win. I will bet on the match, precise results. 10:5 and 10:6 on Ronnie seems like the most realistic choice. But it’s a narrow range. It should be widened to 10:4 and 10:7, which is more realistic, too. The odds are 7.00, 6.50, 6.50 and 7.00 respectively.
If you bet $40, you will get $25-30 net profit if, the bet wins. And the 1.70 bet gives only $7 profit. There’s a risk, it’s true. So, I’ll make another bet to secure the bank. No one doubts Ronnie’s win, right? So, the odds on his -1.5 handicap win are 1.3 and on his -2.5 handicap they are 1.44. But this bet should be safe. $10 and $3 profit won’t save you from other losses, so you should bet $50-60. What’s the result? A $100 bet to get $40 profit, if Ronnie wins from 10:4 to 10:7, or $15 loss if his win is more moderate. In another case, the $100 is lost, and the net loss for the tournament will be $70, which is sad.
In other words, I’m making a big bet on 1.25-1.40. So, here are the tips. I’m ready for criticism!