West Indies vs England 1st Test: Predictions and Betting Tips

14:00, 08 mar 2022
14:00, 08 mar 2022
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West Indies host England as a three-Test series gets underway at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium in Antigua. Joe Root’s tourists are hoping to put a 4-0 Ashes defeat behind them. Read our free predictions and betting picks for the game here…
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Key Stats

  • England have only won one Test series in West Indies since 1968
  • The last 11 matches between the sides have not produced a drawn game
  • But the last two matches played at the Sir Viv Richards Stadium ended as draws

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium in Antigua

West Indies have only lost twice in ten Test matches played at the Antigua ground (W3, D5, L2). The last two played there a year ago ended drawn.

68% of wickets taken across the last four Test matches played there have gone to pace bowlers, which may see England rely on Joe Root and Dan Lawrence to provide the spin.

Are West Indies strong enough to maintain proud home record?

Michael Vaughan’s tourists won 3-0 in the Caribbean in 2004, but that was the only time West Indies have lost at home to England in the last 54 years.

In 2015 the home side won the final Test by five wickets to claim a 1-1 drawn series. And Jason Holder was exceptional the last time the teams met in the Caribbean in 2015. He scored 229 runs and took seven wickets at 17.86 as the hosts won the series 2-1.

A 2-0 series win in Bangladesh was a promising start to 2021. Since, they have won one of eight Tests, including defeats to Sri Lanka, Pakistan and South Africa.

West Indies have failed to win any of their last four home Test series (D2, L2). They are vulnerable, just as bad as England, but always seem to dig that bit deeper when England arrive.

An example of West Indies ‘getting one over the English’ was the recent 3-2 T20I series success. Different format, but there is history, pride and a sense of occasion to this clash that enables West Indies to go up a gear.

Have England enough to expose host’s weaknesses?

England have experienced their worst ever run of 14 Test matches in 1,045 games and 145 years of playing Test cricket (W1, D3, L10).

If England win the series, it would be their first success for over a year, away against a weak Sri Lanka. Losses away in India, home to New Zealand, home to India (incomplete) and away in Australia. Yes, all strong opponents, but some of the margins of defeat have been embarrassing.

Kraigg Brathwaite to lead from the top

Top order woes have hamstrung West Indies. In their last four homes series the highest opening partnership, in eight matches, was a meagre 38.

John Campbell looks set to get a chance to redeem himself. He averages only 23.70 in 30 Test innings and is drinking in the last chance saloon.

Captain Kraigg Brathwaite and Jermaine Blackwood are the leading Test scorers over the last three years. Kyle Mayers and Nkrumah Bonner have done well too.

Brathwaite is the man to back to top score. The last Test he played at Sir Viv Richards Stadium saw him score 126 and 85. In the first innings of Tests since then, he has posted scores of 15, 0, 97, 4, 41 and 72. It’s not ridiculously impressive, but he’s the best of a bunch that lacks consistency.

Kemar Roach loves the Antigua ground0

Fast bowler Kemar Roach has bowled more overs (240.2) at this venue in Test cricket than anywhere else. And it’s the ground where he’s experienced the most success, claiming 39 wickets at 16.90.

Alzarri Joseph is one of several bowlers on show in the series that has a discrepancy between his home and away performances. In West Indies he averages 31.90 as opposed to 61.18 when overseas.

20-year-old Jayden Seales has made an early mark. He’s grabbed 16 wickets in four Tests played at an average of 21.31.

So, there’s a few to pick from in the West Indies bowling markets.

England seeking a fresh start

The decision by England to leave the combined 1,170 Test wickets of James Anderson and Stuart Broad at home was met with controversy. Dawid Malan, Dom Bess, Sam Billings, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler and Haseeb Hameed were also left out from the squad that toured Australia.

Opener Alex Lees and bowler Matthew Fisher are called up for the first time. Uncapped Saqib Mahmood and Matt Parkinson are also included, with Ben Foakes returning as wicketkeeper.

Paul Collingwood is the interim head coach in place of Chris Silverwood who was sacked after the 4-0 Ashes defeat.

Who fills the Anderson and Broad void?

Chris Woakes is the most experienced bowler in the touring squad, but his overseas returns have been paltry compared to his success at home. In England, Woakes has taken 94 wickets at 22.64 in , whereas overseas he’s struggled with 31 wickets at 52.39.

Mark Wood was exceptional in Australia. The Durham fast bowler was arguably the only England player to escape the Ashes series with his reputation enhanced. Wood is the reverse of Woakes with his away performances superior. He’s taken 46 touring scalps at 24.93, but his 35 home wickets have cost 40.71.

Ollie Robinson misses the first Test (back spasms). England may opt to leave out Jack Leach in Antigua, which will see Craig Overton play his seventh Test and Saqib Mahmood debut.

Broad and Anderson have been told the door is not shut on their distinguished careers. They will be watching with interest to see if the bowling attack steps up without them.

Can England solve their batting woes?

England had one warm-up match against a President’s XI and all made 466/6 declared. All the likely first Test starters had productive time in the middle.

Joe Root is usually the batter to trust in England’s order. The ICC Test Cricketer of the Year 2021, scored 1,708 Test runs at 61.00, but struggled in the Ashes. By his own high standards, his 322 runs against Australia in ten innings was disappointing.

Debutant Alex Lees will open the batting alongside Zak Crawley and Joe Root will bat at no.3. He has balked at the move up a place in recent years, but with England’s top order notoriously frail, he’s rarely not been in early as wickets tumble.

Yet Root averages 38.66 batting at three compared to 41.70 as opener, 51.28 in his customary no.4 berth and 67.78 at no.5. It makes sense for Root to shoulder the responsibility, but it is a risk.

Stokes the play

Ben Stokes has good memories of batting against West Indies. That often counts big when looking for a top scorer. He averages 52.94 in Tests against them, more than against any other opponents. In his last ten Test innings against West Indies, he has failed to reach 40 four times and has two scores in the 70s and a highest score of 176.

In a market where it is usually a toss-up between Root and Stokes, the latter gets the nod at a bigger price of 5.00. There’s little obvious competition in the England ranks. Although, Jonny Bairstow made a century in the warm-up match and would be a good priced alternative at 5.50.0

Draw backers could prosper

The draw in a first Test that neither side will want to lose is a definite option. The last two Tests in Antigua have ended in draws and, at a long price of 4.50, it may be a clever punt.

West Indies Test squad: Kraigg Brathwaite (captain), Jermaine Blackwood, Nkrumah Bonner, Shamarh Brooks, John Campbell, Joshua Da Silva, Jason Holder, Alzarri Joseph, Kyle Mayers, Veerasammy Permaul, Anderson Phillip, Kemar Roach, Jayden Seales

England Test squad: Joe Root (captain), Jonathan Bairstow, Zak Crawley, Matthew Fisher, Ben Foakes, Dan Lawrence, Jack Leach, Alex Lees, Saqib Mahmood, Craig Overton, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes and Mark Wood.

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