Portugal haven’t actually won a game in the 90 minutes and even the dramatic winner against Croatia didn’t come until deep into extra-time. In fact, throughout this tournament, they’ve only been in the lead for 22 minutes: 19 of them against Iceland and 3 against Croatia. This is clearly not a side firing on all cylinders. The suspension of William Carvalho won’t help, but it’s not a tragedy either: against Gareth Bale, his likely replacement will be the more mobile Danilo. Wales, of course, will be without Ben Davies and Aaron Ramsey, both suspended. Andy King comes in for Ramsey and that’s a pretty straight-forward change, though, obviously, there’s a drop in quality. It will be interesting to see whether Chris Coleman goes for James Collins or Jazz Richards to replace Davies. The former is stronger and an aerial threat, the latter more mobile. Against Portugal’s strikers, Richards might be the better bet.
Portugal are substantial favorites here, but they’ve made life very difficult for themselves thus far. Wales to qualify at 2.5 isn’t really a great price in my opinion, given that Portugal have twice been through the wringer of extra-time and advanced while Wales are untested (and, also, as they’ve made fewer changes throughout the tournament, probably more fatigued as well). I think the play here is over 2.5 goals at 13/8. Wales have hit the over in four out of five games thus far, Portugal have, of course, been stingier, but it’s hard not seeing them at least getting on the score-sheet.
Get all of Marcotti’s tips here.