That's the verdict from coach Pim Verbeek, who says his Socceroos can forget about their second-round ambitions if they can't better the four points they picked up in the group stages in Germany four years ago.
A 3-1 win against Japan and a 2-2 draw with Croatia, punctuated by a 2-0 loss to Brazil, were to send the Guus Hiddink-coached Socceroos to the round of 16.
But the absence of an "easy" team in Australia's group this time has Verbeek certain four points won't be enough next month.
"I think we need five points - minimum," the Dutchman said. "That's the biggest difference from 2006 in Germany, where with four Australia went to the next round. You cannot count on that this time. It's such a tough group.
"Last time Japan was the weakest team in the group, with all respect to Japan.
"We don't have that this time. I cannot say at the moment which team is the weakest in our group."
Australia's Group D opponents are three-time world champion Germany, a dangerously unpredictable Ghana side, and an extremely talented Serbian outfit.
Verbeek said it would be wrong to assume the Germans were suddenly vulnerable because of the loss of skipper Michael Ballack, who is out of the tournament with an ankle injury.
"Of course it's a loss for them, but they have a fantastic team ... there are no bad players in the German Bundesliga or the German squad," he said.
Verbeek said Ghana's effort to make the final of this year's African Nations Cup with an understrength side was a pointer to its ability, and Serbia was a "fantastic" team.
"The Serbian players play in the best leagues in the world," he said. "They are good, experienced football players. We're going to have to be at our best to go to the next round.
"We need two draws and one win, and it means if we lose to Germany, we have to win the other two."
Verbeek hinted it was crucial the Socceroos got something out of the clash against the Germans in Durban on June 14 and feared three warm-up games - Monday night's MCG clash againstNew Zealand and matches against Denmark and the US in South Africa - would not be sufficient preparation.
"I'd prefer to play four, but because of the travel and the time difference when it comes to Australia, you have to say three games will do," he said.
"We will find out if it's enough. The games you don't play you have to compensate for in training sessions."