Serie A’s Champions League race: The 13 possible top four finishes

Published on: 19 May 2019

Serie A’s Champions League places are very much up for grabs with Atalanta, Inter, AC Milan and Roma all battling for the final two spots in the last round of the season.

As things stand, Atalanta occupy third place with 66 points, ahead of Inter in fourth due to their superior head-to-head record. AC Milan are fifth with 63 points, while Roma are sixth on 63.

The Bergamaschi will play Sassuolo at the Mapei Stadium, Inter host relegation battlers Empoli, Roma take on the already-safe Parma, while Milan travel to the similarly secure SPAL.

Remarkably, there are still 13 different ways the season could end, though only in one of those circumstances will Roma make it into the top four.

Of the 13 variations, Atalanta have nine chances to make it into the top four, while both of the Milanese giants have eight.

Scenario one: Atalanta and Inter win, securing their top four finishes.

Scenario two: Atalanta and Milan win, with Inter not winning at Empoli. This leaves La Dea and the Rossoneri in the top four and Inter in the Europa League.

Scenario three: The Milanese sides win and Atalanta stumble against Sassuolo. Milan and Inter get top four, La Dea the Europa League.

Scenario four:
Milan win at SPAL, Atalanta draw and Inter lose. Milan get third, La Dea fourth and Inter the Europa League.

Scenario five: Milan beat SPAL, Inter draw and Atalanta lose. This sends Atalanta to the Europa League while Milan and Inter take the top four.

Scenario six: Milan win, Atalanta and Inter draw. Milan third, Atalanta fourth, Inter Europa League.

Scenario seven: Milan and Roma win but Inter and Atalanta draw. This leaves a three-way tie on 66 points. Atalanta take fourth, Roma fifth and Inter sixth on head-to-head-to-head.

Scenario eight: Atalanta win or draw, Inter lose and Milan draw. La Dea third, Inter fourth, Milan fifth.

Scenario nine: Inter win or draw, Atalanta lose and Milan draw. Inter get third and Milan fourth.

Scenario ten: Inter and Atalanta lose, Milan draw and Roma don’t win. Inter, Milan and Atalanta all end on 66 points and it’s another three-way head-to-head. Inter take third, La Dea fourth and Milan fifth.

Scenario 11: Only Roma win as the others lose. Another 66-point tie with three sides. Atalanta grab third, Roma fourth and Inter fifth.

Scenario 12: A four-way tie with 66 points will occur if the Nerazzurri sides lose, Milan draw and Roma win. That leaves the Milanese sides in the top four and Atalanta fifth, with Roma sixth.

Scenario 13: Inter, Milan and Atalanta lose and Roma don’t win will leave La Dea third, Inter taking fourth.