Sports betting rookies believe the best way to make money is to accurately predict the outcome of sporting events. Although this is true in a narrow sense, no one gets their predictions right 100% of the time. Many factors need to be taken into consideration for anyone to get their predictions right 100% of the time. And any sports fan who has followed the sport long enough would have witnessed some truly incredible things.
Despite how well they know their sports and how much they study the form, the most successful gamblers don't get it right every time. The key to winning is to get your bets right as often as possible, but the value is often overlooked. Value is a term that sports bettors frequently use and one that you should learn to understand for yourself.
The Hit Rate
In simple terms, the hit rate refers to the percentage of successful bets made. You will have a 60% hit rate if you place 10 bets and win six of them. Your success rate is 6 times out of 10. There is this misconception that a high hit rate is a successful picking strategy in betting. Well, it is very possible to have a high hit rate and still lose money.
If sports betting odds always matched the probability of an event happening, the only way to consistently win money on sports betting would be to outdo probability. However, this is unlikely in the long run. It is even more unlikely when you remember that bookmakers set bets just below probability level so that they can make a profit for themselves. Based on the number of bets you place and win, your hit rate will determine how many you place. You can check this site out, as it’s a great site to bet on
Probability
A probability is the chance or likelihood of something happening. The probability of hitting a 6 is one in six when you roll a dice. It is also 1 in 6 that you will hit 1,2,3,4 or 5. This is how probability works. Even though probability cannot be precisely calculated in sports betting, we can make judgement calls based on head-to-head records, form etc.
The good news is that bookies and punters share the same perspective on probability as to when it comes to making a judgement. More importantly, bookmakers have more bets to worry about than you do. Generally, bookies will want to offer wagers at prices below the probability of the result, if they can get away with it. However, this doesn’t always happen.
Recognising Good Value
At first, understanding good value might seem challenging, but it becomes easier after a few attempts. Imagine you are offered odds of 6/4 for Sheffield United to win. Based on these odds, Sheffield has a 40% chance of winning.
We can work this out this way
6/4 = 1.5
1.5 + 1 = 2.5
1/2.5 = 0.4
0.4 * 100 = 40%
So, you can make a profit of $50 if you bet $20 on Sheffield at 6/4. Your chances of winning that $50 are 40%. Therefore, four times out of ten you will give you $50 and six times out of ten you will see you lose $20. The $50 involves your stake, so the real amount you win is $30.
Expected Value
The formula for calculating expected value is (probability of winning * amount won) – (probability of losing * stake).
The probability of winning is 40% while the amount won is $30. The probability of losing is 60% while a stake of $20 is required
Using the formula, the expected value will be (40% of $30) – (60% 0f $20) = $12 - $12 = $0
Therefore, all bets that are exactly priced at their probability of happening have zero value. You wouldn't be able to make anything out of this in the long run. Suppose you believe Sheffield has a better than 40% chance of winning. However, it will be much higher, at around 50%.
With the chance of winning hitting 50%, the expected value will be
Expected Value = (50% of $50) – (50% 0f $20) = $25 - $10 = $15
There is now a greater value proposition. Even if you lose or win in the short term, you will expect to make money over the long run.
Conclusion
Using this information, you can now calculate what a bookmaker believes to be the value of a bet. Comparing the two probabilities is the best way to determine when one is more likely than the other. You'll know immediately if you've got a good value bet by the value of your amount.