Not much separating these two at all in the markets. I think this may be down to Germany’s absentees: Mats Hummels is suspended, Mario Gomez and Sami Khedira are injured and Bastian Schewinsteiger is likely to miss out too. That is a lot to give up and it’s bound to affect the team. Replacing Hummels is not a huge deal: Shkodran Mustafi did it well in the opener and you also have Beni Howedes. Gomez means there is no plan B. You’re looking at either Mario Goetze or Thomas Mueller at center forward and neither has played well in this tournament. You’re also very limited in terms of the striking changes you can make from the bench. Things are complicated in midfield as well. Emre Can or, more likely, Julian Weigl will come in alongside Toni Kroos and, at first glance, it should make Germany more defensive. Not only are these arguably more defensive players, when you come into a team there is often a psychological reaction to be safety first.
France are tough to read though. Didier Deschamps has made plenty of changes in this tournament, never starting the same XI twice and switching formations too. I’d expect him to change again in this match, a midfield duo of Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi on their own is too much of a risk against the likes of Mesut Ozil, Julian Draxler and (though we haven’t seen him yet, he’d be a good match here) maybe Leroy Sane. I’d also expect Deschamps to truly worry about Germany passing the ball through the lines as is their trademark and, therefore stiffening things up further. To me, all this points to a low-scoring, cagey affair. Go for under 0.5 goals in the first half at 5/4.
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