UEFA EURO 2016: Group A betting preview

There’s a pretty clear hierarchy in this group, at least from the bookies’ point of view: France are uber favorites, Switzerland come next, although some way behind, followed by Romania, and then, last but not least, there’s Albania, in whom nobody seems to believe.

France

France, as the host nation, are arguably the most talented side in the tournament. They reached the quarterfinals of the last World Cup where they were edged out, one-nil, by Germany, but this time around they look considerably better. Players like Paul Pogba and Antoine Griezmann have really kicked on since then and have both become established names at the top of European club football in the last two seasons. In addition, they have other weapons like Premier League winner N’Golo Kante, Manchester United hit-man Antony Martial and Bayern Munich ace Kingsley Coman, none of whom were in Brazil. The only significant absentee from that group is Karim Benzema, but he’s contributed little to Les Bleus in the past year and there is plenty of other firepower to call upon. I don’t think Didier Deschamps is the greatest of managers, but navigating this group should be a breeze. If you’re going to poke holes, maybe the defence isn’t phenomenal – Varane is injury-prone and if he goes down you’re looking at Eliaquim Mangala or Jeremy Mathieu, but we’re nitpicking here.

Full team preview here.

Romania

Romania have qualified for just one major tournament since 2000 and it’s clear they still have problems. Recent performances from this team have been far from exciting. In truth they had a pretty humdrum qualifying group and still finished behind Northern Ireland (though they were undefeated and conceded just twice). The Romanians strengths lie very much in the defensive areas, they can be a tough side to break and have a very good keeper in Ciprian Tatarusanu, but at the other end they’re not exactly free-flowing especially if they’re still relying on Gabriel Torje for creativity. While they may not be blown away at this tournament it is difficult to see them making any real headway, and it’s likely that they’ll lack the quality needed to progress.

Full team preview here.

Albania

As for Albania, Gianni De Biasi has done a fabulous job with a rather ordinary group of players. This is the first time in their history that they’ve qualified for a major tournament. This on it’s own is a fine achievement, but when we consider that they made it through a very tough group, one that included Portugal, Denmark and Serbia, it becomes even more impressive. The melee following the drone with a political message in Belgrade ended up benefiting them as they were awarded three points in a game they would probably have lost. But make no mistake about it, this is a tough-minded side which is especially adept at the back with defenders like Andy Lila, Elseid Hysaj and veteran Lorik Cana.

Switzerland

Despite losing to England both home and away, Switzerland qualified for these finals with ease from Group G. They both defeated and lost to Slovenia, but showcased a real dominance against the other three sides, although this was only to be expected. Overcoming Lithuania, Estonia and San Marino is nothing special and even against Slovenia it took an injury time goal to get the three points (they were 0-2 down). I think they have issues up front where Breel Embolo is still very raw and neither Admir Mehmedi nor Haris Seferovic are coming off convincing seasons. The midfield is solid with Xherdan Shaqiri and Granit Xhaka, while Ricardo Rodriguez is a threat down the left flank of a spiky defense, but they are still less than the sum of their parts. One their day this side can play some nice stuff, but nice will only get you so far.

Verdict

As I see it, there’s no value in backing France. They should walk it. But the other three might be closer than you think. Switzerland have plenty of players of Albanian descent, it’s going to feel like more than just a football match. As we said, Switzerland did not look great in qualifying. And given the gap between France and everybody else, you could get a scenario where Les Bleus dominate and run the table but results between the others are far more level and we get a surprise runner-up.  If we assume the hosts will qualify with some ease, of the other three it is Albania who impressed the most in qualifying. That’s why I like Albania to qualify at 7/4 or, better yet, a straight France/Albania forecast at 6/1.