The prices have Portugal as favorites here and it seems a bit excessive to me. They did create plenty against Iceland and Austria, but when faced with a well organized side like Croatia, they faltered. Obviously they came through against Croatia, but they created little in the way of chances in 90 minutes and scored late in extra time through a counter-attack.
Poland have a strong defence (the only goal they’ve conceded thus far was Xherdan Shari’s wonder-strike and are very well put together by Adam Nawalka. The only downside is that Robert Lewandowski and Arkadiusz Milik have been somewhat disappointing in terms of attacking output but who’s to say they won’t snap out of it here?
Overall I simply don’t agree that Portugal are the better side here and i think Poland can prove themselves to be, at the very least, as good. That’s why I’m backing Poland +1 at 8/13 or, for more value, Poland to win outright at 3/1.
Enhanced odds! To get ‘Lewandowski To Score, Poland to Win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1’ at 7/1 (was 6/1) click here.
Other Gabriele Marcotti’s betting tips can be found here.