FA CUP SHOCK RATINGS: What are chances of upsets for the NINE Premier League sides?

Published on: 22 January 2021

There is a recurring theme in this year's FA Cup fourth-round draw, with Premier League clubs pitted against lower-league opposition in nine of the 16 ties.

With only three all-Premier League matches the opportunity presents itself for a host of clubs to make themselves the story of the weekend by delivering a giantkilling.

Some are far more likely than others, with clubs outside the top flight ranging from Brentford near the Championship summit to Chorley in National League North.

Equally, the Premier League scalps on offer range from title favourites Manchester City to bottom-placed Sheffield United, who have just five points this season.

Here, Sportsmail looks at each of the nine ties pitting a Premier League club against lower-league opposition and rates the chances of a shock...

Chorley v Wolves, Friday, 7.45pm

For the only non-League side left in the FA Cup to draw a Premier League team at home represents the dream tie they would have been hoping for - certainly under normal circumstances with fans allowed in the ground.

Chorley sit in eighth place in National League North - the sixth tier of English football - making them the 123rd best team in the country, so Friday's night's tie provides by far the biggest gulf between opponents and as such the chances of a shock are slim.

If Wolves' line-up against Crystal Palace in the third round is anything to go by they are taking the FA Cup seriously and the Lancastrians, who beat a youthful Derby side to get to this stage after the Rams' first team was decimated by Covid, will be satisfied with avoiding embarrassment. Never say never though.

Shock rating: 2/10

Odds: Chorley 22/1, Wolves 1/10

Brighton v Blackpool, Saturday, 3pm

England's two most famous seaside resorts go head-to-head in the fourth round and though Blackpool have a rich history, they find themselves two divisions below Premier League Brighton going into this one.

As with so many of these ties, a lot depends on the line-ups put out, and if the Seagulls rest a number of first-team stars then the Seasiders will fancy their chances of an upset.

The third-round results certainly give cause for optimism for Blackpool, who saw off an under-strength Premier League side in West Brom, while Brighton needed penalties to beat Newport, who play in the division below Blackpool - who are managed by former Liverpool reserve coach Neil Critchley.

Shock rating: 5/10

Odds: Brighton 2/5, Blackpool 11/2

Sheffield United v Plymouth, Saturday, 3pm

Another tie pitting a struggling Premier League side against a League One club - and one you suspect Neil Warnock, who managed both, will be watching closely.

Plymouth are in good form, winning three of their last four including the third-round scalp of Huddersfield - also an away tie - while Sheffield United have won just one game in the Premier League all season and are 11 points from safety.

All that being said, Blades boss Chris Wilder picked a strong team against League One Bristol Rovers in the third round and is likely to do so again to try and gather some momentum for his team.

Shock rating: 5/10

Odds: Sheffield United 2/5, Plymouth 11/2

West Ham v Doncaster, Saturday, 3pm

West Ham are flying high in the Premier League, unbeaten in six matches in all competitions under David Moyes and at home to a team two divisions below them. For all of those reasons, a shock appears unlikely.

A look at Moyes' line-up for the third-round win over Stockport doesn't offer much solace for Darren Moore's team either, with only a couple of first-team regulars rested against non-League opposition.

West Ham do have two Premier League matches against Crystal Palace and Liverpool next week though, and Doncaster are the form team in League One - just three points off the top with two games in hand. So if Moyes does decide to rotate one too many stars, Donny are ready to pounce.

Shock rating: 5/10

Odds: West Ham 1/4, Doncaster 10/1

Cheltenham v Man City, Saturday, 5.30pm

The only tougher draw Cheltenham could have got would have been Manchester City away, with Pep Guardiola's side the form team in the Premier League right now and favourites to lift the title.

There will be some rotation by Pep, but he does take the cup competitions seriously and when the players likely to be given chances are the quality of Aymeric Laporte, Riyad Mahrez, Gabriel Jesus and Ferran Torres, the drop-off in quality will be minimal.

To make matters worse for Cheltenham, they go into the game off the back of a seven-match winless run in League Two. In fact, their only win in nine in all competitions came against Mansfield in the third round, when they needed extra-time.

Shock rating: 1/10

Odds: Cheltenham 25/1, Man City 1/12

Chelsea v Luton, Sunday, 12pm

Under mounting pressure having lost five of their last eight Premier League games, this is just the sort of potential banana skin Frank Lampard doesn't need right now.

On paper, Chelsea should win comfortably, but then on paper they shouldn't have lost in at least three of those five Premier League defeats. With his squad bereft of confidence, team selection will be key with two more home matches coming up in the Premier League within seven days.

Get it right and it could represent the start of a revival for Lampard, get it wrong and  Luton, who have become a solid mid-table Championship side, are good enough to capitalise.

Shock rating: 3/10

Odds: Chelsea 1/7, Luton 16/1

Brentford v Leicester, Sunday, 2.30pm

With Brentford and Leicester flying high in the Championship and Premier League respectively, this should be a good game of football whatever happens.

As with every cup tie these days, so much depends on selection. With Leicester going well in the league and a tricky trip to Everton coming up, expect Brendan Rodgers to field a second-string team, which gives Brentford a real chance.

However, Thomas Frank's No 1 and only goal this season is promotion, so he too is likely to rest players - but he did that in the Carabao Cup this season and still got to the semi-finals, beating four Premier League teams along the way.

Shock rating: 6/10

Odds: Brentford 15/4, Leicester 7/10

Everton v Sheffield Wednesday, Sunday, 8pm

Carlo Ancelotti won the FA Cup with Chelsea in 2010 and his third-round team selection against Rotherham suggests he'd like to win it again with Everton.

In this busier-than-ever season though, he will still have to rest some players and is without injured star striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin, opening the door somewhat for the Championship side.

Wednesday have had a turbulent season even by Covid standards, with six points deducted and two managers gone already. They haven't played since the third-round win over Exeter on January 9 so caretaker boss Neil Thompson is likely to field a strong side to try and get fitness levels back up.

Shock rating: 3/10

Odds: Everton 3/10, Sheffield Wednesday 8/1

Wycombe v Tottenham, Monday, 7.45pm

Having become a Football League club for the first time in 1993, Wycombe are now just one division below Spurs - though they are bottom of the Championship in their first ever season at that level.

Like Sheffield Wednesday, Gareth Ainsworth's Chairboys haven't played since their third-round win - 4-1 against Preston - on January 9 but that could work to their advantage.

Jose Mourinho never turns down the opportunity to win a trophy though and we can expect a strong side put out by Tottenham in the final tie of the fourth round.

Shock rating: 3/10

Odds: Wycombe 9/1, Tottenham 2/9

Source: m.allfootballapp.com

This website uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website.
Learn more